Now Steve Jobs' passing away is sad, we lost someone whose success was largely derived from innovation. He was so visible, we saw him deteriorate, time to prepare ourselves. Jobs persona is unique, but far away, disconnected from my world, that's why it was not shocking. In some ways we could be happy he was able to stay with us a few years more thanks to modern science. What a few years they were too!
I've just heard the news about Dennis Ritchie. Ritchie has had a very profound impact on my life, more than any innovation at Apple ever could. I built my career on C and Unix in the early days and still vividly recall my excitement when I obtained my first (and now long lost) copy of the K&R C book. The one with the very first "Hello. World!" programming example. Mac OS X and iOS are dependent upon these two fundamental building blocks, C and Unix, both of which Ritchie was instrumental in creating. Despite all this greatness, Ritchie was just another engineer, albeit one that had done something quite remarkable. I feel so deeply saddened to hear of his passing. It really is quite a shock, a jolt.
Jobs passing makes me wonder what we're left with, will innovation continue or will the Ellison's and Balmers use their might to bring us back to a time when innovation was stifled. It's more a fear of big business, a fear of repression.
Ritchie passing makes me realise that many of the Pioneers of current technology are quite old, it makes me think about my future and wonder that I'm on the right path. Many of them are only a generation or two old than me. When I was much younger, these were hero's, now though I see the person, the hard working engineer, who in some back room has changed our world so significantly that you realise Apple didn't really innovate anything much in terms of technology, but they packaged it properly and made it usable.
Ritchie was key in creating Unix and C, Jobs made it usable and he made it cool to carry around a computer running on Unix in your pocket or bag.
R.I.P. Ritchie and Jobs
Saturday, 15 October 2011
Sunday, 4 September 2011
Thursday, 12 May 2011
Gold Commentary
This is my long term chart again. We crashed down through 1500, but were quickly arrested. There is tremendous amounts of support around 1488. I was worried we could see 1460 in my last post. It seems we've not broken below this major trend line. I've marked the danger area that we flit in and out of as I write, which is 1480. I'm cautiously looking for some real nice buying opportunities at 1495ish. We might see some consolidation at the current level and perhaps edging up slightly above 1500. If we see 1460 anytime soon, I'm going to be looking for downside protection as that would create a very strong negative signal. Remember the above is a 10 point chart which won't show 1490 until we hit about 1495ish. It's a good time to watch the news. The markets are fickle and over-react to just about anything the Fed say. Although I think the strengthening of the Dollar has more to do with the fiasco in Eurozone. Perhaps people might actually start to realize what a mess the UK is in too, much worse than the US.
Thursday, 5 May 2011
Gold Commentary
Well, since mid April this is really the only downturn we've seen in a massive rally after Gold broke above 1440, that's 1440 to 1570 in a couple of weeks! I'd expect at least a 50% retracement of that Rally, which would put us right about the 1510 mark, which we're nearing now. Below that I might start getting a bit defensive and worrying about some longer term protection. Take a look at long term chart to put this down move into perspective.
The next chart really shows that Gold is not giving up ground as quickly as it gained it. That's a good sign as the markets discount quickly! What is apparent here is that the rally has been clear right from 1420. There wasn't resistance at 1500 on the way up, so the real support looks to be between 1420-1460. That would put our retracement figure below the 1500 mark! It's difficult to say, the rally seems a bit full of air with that large bubble forming in the picture below. We'll have to keep a close watch. Is it serious or is it time to buy-on-dip!
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| Long Term Chart |
The next chart really shows that Gold is not giving up ground as quickly as it gained it. That's a good sign as the markets discount quickly! What is apparent here is that the rally has been clear right from 1420. There wasn't resistance at 1500 on the way up, so the real support looks to be between 1420-1460. That would put our retracement figure below the 1500 mark! It's difficult to say, the rally seems a bit full of air with that large bubble forming in the picture below. We'll have to keep a close watch. Is it serious or is it time to buy-on-dip!
Friday, 15 April 2011
Gold Commentary
Disclaimer: I'm not an analyst and I am wholly unqualified to give any financial or investment advice whatsoever. This is just a place for me to put my notes accessible from anywhere and for a few friends to discuss.
Not much to say about it really. Unexpected inflation in Europe I guess was the trigger, plus the technical traders with buy orders around 1480 - which I never really understand, talk about bad timing!
It's worth looking at the charts otherwise one tends to feel a bit in awe of the succession of new highs.
Actually we're a not really in any excessive rally for gold. The 1 point charts shows the fluctuations since April 1st. Remember that these charts don't move sideways by date, there's no date concept, only opposing forces can make significant sideways movement. That movement happened some time ago and we've seen a correction back to a more steady pace. If you'd have tried to short the market on the early April rises, you'd have been sitting on that for a couple of weeks, wondering just how wrong you could be. A brief and rather difficult decline was then followed by yet another easy climb to new highs. By the way that declines was when the Feds were announcing their marginally better than expected employment figures. There are a bunch of people out there trading news reactions!!
Gold $1483.29 Silver $42.746
Not much to say about it really. Unexpected inflation in Europe I guess was the trigger, plus the technical traders with buy orders around 1480 - which I never really understand, talk about bad timing!
It's worth looking at the charts otherwise one tends to feel a bit in awe of the succession of new highs.
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| 1 Point Chart |
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| 5 Point Chart |
Actually we're a not really in any excessive rally for gold. The 1 point charts shows the fluctuations since April 1st. Remember that these charts don't move sideways by date, there's no date concept, only opposing forces can make significant sideways movement. That movement happened some time ago and we've seen a correction back to a more steady pace. If you'd have tried to short the market on the early April rises, you'd have been sitting on that for a couple of weeks, wondering just how wrong you could be. A brief and rather difficult decline was then followed by yet another easy climb to new highs. By the way that declines was when the Feds were announcing their marginally better than expected employment figures. There are a bunch of people out there trading news reactions!!
Thursday, 14 April 2011
Gold Commentary
Disclaimer: I'm not an analyst and I am wholly unqualified to give any financial or investment advice whatsoever. This is just a place for me to put my notes accessible from anywhere and for a few friends to discuss.
Hi Paul,
Any chances for correction in near future?
Best regards,
Hey xxxx,
The signals I have are all very bullish. Fundamentally a surprise rate hike in the US could affect gold in the short term, but medium to long term raising rates in the US would do more damage. Gold should consolidate between 1450 and 1480 creating a strong support level. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't challenge a new high before this week is out, it's trading down at 1450 and could rally from here if there's willing. I wouldn't be too worried about it breaking below 1448.
Paul
Hi Paul,
Any chances for correction in near future?
Best regards,
Hey xxxx,
The signals I have are all very bullish. Fundamentally a surprise rate hike in the US could affect gold in the short term, but medium to long term raising rates in the US would do more damage. Gold should consolidate between 1450 and 1480 creating a strong support level. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't challenge a new high before this week is out, it's trading down at 1450 and could rally from here if there's willing. I wouldn't be too worried about it breaking below 1448.
Paul
Sunday, 10 April 2011
Gold Commentary
Well not much to add, we have so obviously broken out on the upside of some serious consolidation, we can for the time being feel comfortable that our gold is safe.
Instead let me link to another blog that highlights gold's role in the world: Why Central Banks of the West Hate Gold
Instead let me link to another blog that highlights gold's role in the world: Why Central Banks of the West Hate Gold
Sunday, 3 April 2011
Gold Commentary
Disclaimer: I'm not an analyst and I am wholly unqualified to give any financial or investment advice whatsoever. This is just a place for me to put my notes accessible from anywhere and for a few friends to discuss.
Last week was more volatile than I anticipated. Quite scary. What I'm seeing though is a lot of intraday volatility that's responding directly to the news. Friday was quite shocking (again) as the shorts came in, pushed things down and then left with almost no damage done at all. Gold was hovering with almost no volume at 1433 before the non-farm payroll figures. The figures were better than expected and a lot of comments from the fed were released (these are apparently pre-written btw!!!). The market took a dive (over 1%) and finally closed for the weekend at the upper side of 1428.
Fundamentals
I can't see that raising interest rates are going to negatively affect gold, all they're going to do is cause more havoc with what's already a fragile situation. The Eurozone is still in a mess, mortgage defaults jumped in the UK last week. Inflation is going higher. Japanese car sales were down nearly 40%! JPMorgan released a report saying as many as 20,000 middle/back office jobs will have to go. It was mentioned by one fed official that 200,000 new jobs (serfs) per month until the end of 2012 would still leave unemployment relatively high.
We're far from out of the bad news and the war of devaluing currencies continues. Maybe the Americans have run out of excuses to print money for the time being especially in light of the disasters in Japan and G7 support of the Yen.
Charts
So what do the charts say? Firstly the long term chart is showing a positive. The Dragon is still there! What it's showing is that the negative fluctuations were not sufficient to shift the pattern to the negative side in the long term. Indeed as the shorts unwound on Friday, we closed for business above the 1425 support line.
The long/intermediate chart shows more clearly the volatility that's going on, but there is clear consolidation above 1412.30, with a bubble to the upside. I think we can safely say now that any moves below 1405 are bad, my stops are in at 1402 and I'll consider shorting on margin to protect my physical below 1400. February's high saw a re-tracement of 50% of the move down into the 1380's. The backing off from March's high was arrested again and again at 1412.30. Of course we're still in a secular bull market in gold and what we're looking for is protection of the gold we've accumulated. At present we're safe, looking at some upside, but with 1400 being such a strong negative signal if it happens, we need to be alert.
1450/1460? Well I see these numbers being bandied around and to be honest those levels could be hit by accident if a few big players are not paying attention at the same time, I mean it's not really a balls-out call by those analysts.
Prospect as of April 2011
I think it's an interesting time. Things look slightly up here in Hong Kong, you can feel the buzz, but there's lots of bad news around. If Americans can challenge and overcome the people who block their constitutional powers to use Gold and Silver as money, then there might be some rising demand for gold, but on the other hand, if American can't and are forced against the constitution by the powers that be, then their impending loss of freedom might actually force the flight to gold higher (look at Egypt whose ban on gold is leading to massive price inflation and smuggling).
Anyhow we need to keep an eye on the feds actions as this could well lead to some bargains in gold, or worse case a flight to yield could cause an end to the bull market.
Last week was more volatile than I anticipated. Quite scary. What I'm seeing though is a lot of intraday volatility that's responding directly to the news. Friday was quite shocking (again) as the shorts came in, pushed things down and then left with almost no damage done at all. Gold was hovering with almost no volume at 1433 before the non-farm payroll figures. The figures were better than expected and a lot of comments from the fed were released (these are apparently pre-written btw!!!). The market took a dive (over 1%) and finally closed for the weekend at the upper side of 1428.
Fundamentals
I can't see that raising interest rates are going to negatively affect gold, all they're going to do is cause more havoc with what's already a fragile situation. The Eurozone is still in a mess, mortgage defaults jumped in the UK last week. Inflation is going higher. Japanese car sales were down nearly 40%! JPMorgan released a report saying as many as 20,000 middle/back office jobs will have to go. It was mentioned by one fed official that 200,000 new jobs (serfs) per month until the end of 2012 would still leave unemployment relatively high.
We're far from out of the bad news and the war of devaluing currencies continues. Maybe the Americans have run out of excuses to print money for the time being especially in light of the disasters in Japan and G7 support of the Yen.
Charts
So what do the charts say? Firstly the long term chart is showing a positive. The Dragon is still there! What it's showing is that the negative fluctuations were not sufficient to shift the pattern to the negative side in the long term. Indeed as the shorts unwound on Friday, we closed for business above the 1425 support line.
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| Previous long-term resistance at 1425 |
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| Drop from March's high arrested again and again around 1412.30 |
Prospect as of April 2011
I think it's an interesting time. Things look slightly up here in Hong Kong, you can feel the buzz, but there's lots of bad news around. If Americans can challenge and overcome the people who block their constitutional powers to use Gold and Silver as money, then there might be some rising demand for gold, but on the other hand, if American can't and are forced against the constitution by the powers that be, then their impending loss of freedom might actually force the flight to gold higher (look at Egypt whose ban on gold is leading to massive price inflation and smuggling).
Anyhow we need to keep an eye on the feds actions as this could well lead to some bargains in gold, or worse case a flight to yield could cause an end to the bull market.
Wednesday, 30 March 2011
Gold Commentary
Disclaimer: I'm not an analyst and I am wholly unqualified to give any financial or investment advice whatsoever. This is just a place for me to put my notes accessible from anywhere and for a few friends to discuss.
It's worth going long here. Since the recent high and a little bit of backing off, which usually lasts a few days, we've had nice positive consolidation and a sudden break through the very clear ceiling that existed on the two short term charts.
In actual fact I had to go off and manage my position. I got out here. But remember I'm still holding physical so I'm still long. The intermediate/log chart now shows an up move. It looks like we've just moved up to the next trading range. Tentatively I'd say 1420-1440, but it's going to be choppy!
It's worth going long here. Since the recent high and a little bit of backing off, which usually lasts a few days, we've had nice positive consolidation and a sudden break through the very clear ceiling that existed on the two short term charts.
In actual fact I had to go off and manage my position. I got out here. But remember I'm still holding physical so I'm still long. The intermediate/log chart now shows an up move. It looks like we've just moved up to the next trading range. Tentatively I'd say 1420-1440, but it's going to be choppy!
Tuesday, 29 March 2011
Gold Commentary
Disclaimer: I'm not an analyst and I am wholly unqualified to give any financial or investment advice whatsoever. This is just a place for me to put my notes accessible from anywhere and for a few friends to discuss.
This is what your candlesticks/ohlc charts obfuscate from view. Look how nicely this played out today after the failed fulcrum I spotted earlier. Serious resistance 1423.10, which, given the patterns would make a nice entry point just above. As I write though the market has backed off from this level.
This is what your candlesticks/ohlc charts obfuscate from view. Look how nicely this played out today after the failed fulcrum I spotted earlier. Serious resistance 1423.10, which, given the patterns would make a nice entry point just above. As I write though the market has backed off from this level.
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| 1/2 point intraday |
Gold Commentary
Disclaimer: I'm not an analyst and I am wholly unqualified to give any financial or investment advice whatsoever. This is just a place for me to put my notes accessible from anywhere and for a few friends to discuss.
Gold remains largely unchanged, a very shaky downward fulcrum completed and then failed on the 1/2 point intraday chart. Don't pay too much attention to patterns there though, as mainly this chart is used for entry timing.
The drop close to 1410 has registered a down on my intermediate/long chart. The long chart has not moved but shows negative, my sentiment is still that we could see 1400 challenged. That said, it would be nice to see gold stable for a while and just range between 1405-1425 and solidify the position, so it's further moves would be more definitive.
Gold remains largely unchanged, a very shaky downward fulcrum completed and then failed on the 1/2 point intraday chart. Don't pay too much attention to patterns there though, as mainly this chart is used for entry timing.
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| 1/2 point intraday |
The drop close to 1410 has registered a down on my intermediate/long chart. The long chart has not moved but shows negative, my sentiment is still that we could see 1400 challenged. That said, it would be nice to see gold stable for a while and just range between 1405-1425 and solidify the position, so it's further moves would be more definitive.
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| 5 point chart registers a downward move |
Monday, 28 March 2011
Gold Commentary
Well, a nice little run down, the short position protected my physical ever so nicely. I'm not look for great profits here just security and that's what I got, I was stopped out when the gold jumped back up to 1416.
Currently my long term charts are showing negative (more negative than my last post). But for now, I've faced the dragon, here is on top of a mountain of gold:
See how far we are off the huge (and only showing the intermediate) uptrend. Those bubbles would worry me on a stock chart, but I see them all the time on gold. I think they're the shorts being beaten up by the market. The signs are negative for the very short term, positive in the long term.
Maybe we'll see a war zone around 1405. Will be interesting if any more positive US$ news (ahem!) can push through that level. It will be a fight.
Currently my long term charts are showing negative (more negative than my last post). But for now, I've faced the dragon, here is on top of a mountain of gold:
See how far we are off the huge (and only showing the intermediate) uptrend. Those bubbles would worry me on a stock chart, but I see them all the time on gold. I think they're the shorts being beaten up by the market. The signs are negative for the very short term, positive in the long term.
Maybe we'll see a war zone around 1405. Will be interesting if any more positive US$ news (ahem!) can push through that level. It will be a fight.
Gold Commentary
Disclaimer: I'm not an analyst and I am wholly unqualified to give any financial or investment advice whatsoever. This is just a place for me to put my notes accessible from anywhere and for a few friends to discuss.
My long term charts (5pts and 10pts) are both showing negative signals. Gold touched a new high last week and typically weakens for a few days after such an occurrence. Overall I'm bullish on gold; it's nervously that I eye a short sell hedge to protect my physical.
As I write, the short term charts have shown a fight above the support level 1422.50, which was my short entry point (in fact I had to stop writing and went short at 1422.20). I expect we could test 1400 from here. I'll put my stop loss in at 1423.50. I'll increase my short position on any further strong downward signal. Looking for consolidation, or further short on any catapult.
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| 5 point chart shows we're 2 deep into the red |
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| Long term 10pt chart negative |
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| 1 point chart |
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| 1/2 point entry timing |
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