Iconic I.T. pioneers are dying

Now Steve Jobs' passing away is sad, we lost someone whose success was largely derived from innovation. He was so visible, we saw him deteriorate, time to prepare ourselves. Jobs persona is unique, but far away, disconnected from my world, that's why it was not shocking. In some ways we could be happy he was able to stay with us a few years more thanks to modern science. What a few years they were too!

I've just heard the news about Dennis Ritchie. Ritchie has had a very profound impact on my life, more than any innovation at Apple ever could. I built my career on C and Unix in the early days and still vividly recall my excitement when I obtained my first (and now long lost) copy of the K&R C book. The one with the very first "Hello. World!" programming example. Mac OS X and iOS are dependent upon these two fundamental building blocks, C and Unix, both of which Ritchie was instrumental in creating. Despite all this greatness, Ritchie was just another engineer, albeit one that had done something quite remarkable. I feel so deeply saddened to hear of his passing. It really is quite a shock, a jolt.

Jobs passing makes me wonder what we're left with, will innovation continue or will the Ellison's and Balmers use their might to bring us back to a time when innovation was stifled. It's more a fear of big business, a fear of repression.

Ritchie passing makes me realise that many of the Pioneers of current technology are quite old, it makes me think about my future and wonder that I'm on the right path. Many of them are only a generation or two old than me. When I was much younger, these were hero's, now though I see the person, the hard working engineer, who in some back room has changed our world so significantly that you realise Apple didn't really innovate anything much in terms of technology, but they packaged it properly and made it usable.

Ritchie was key in creating Unix and C, Jobs made it usable and he made it cool to carry around a computer running on Unix in your pocket or bag.

R.I.P. Ritchie and Jobs

Samsung Securities - samsungresearch.com

Check out the Samsung Securities (Asia) Ltd website.

Gold Commentary

This is my long term chart again. We crashed down through 1500, but were quickly arrested. There is tremendous amounts of support around 1488. I was worried we could see 1460 in my last post. It seems we've not broken below this major trend line. I've marked the danger area that we flit in and out of as I write, which is 1480. I'm cautiously looking for some real nice buying opportunities at 1495ish. We might see some consolidation at the current level and perhaps edging up slightly above 1500. If we see 1460 anytime soon, I'm going to be looking for downside protection as that would create a very strong negative signal. Remember the above is a 10 point chart which won't show 1490 until we hit about 1495ish. It's a good time to watch the news. The markets are fickle and over-react to just about anything the Fed say. Although I think the strengthening of the Dollar has more to do with the fiasco in Eurozone. Perhaps people might actually start to realize what a mess the UK is in too, much worse than the US.

Gold Commentary

Well, since mid April this is really the only downturn we've seen in a massive rally after Gold broke above 1440, that's 1440 to 1570 in a couple of weeks! I'd expect at least a 50% retracement of that Rally, which would put us right about the 1510 mark, which we're nearing now. Below that I might start getting a bit defensive and worrying about some longer term protection. Take a look at long term chart to put this down move into perspective.

Long Term Chart

The next chart really shows that Gold is not giving up ground as quickly as it gained it. That's a good sign as the markets discount quickly! What is apparent here is that the rally has been clear right from 1420. There wasn't resistance at 1500 on the way up, so the real support looks to be between 1420-1460. That would put our retracement figure below the 1500 mark! It's difficult to say, the rally seems a bit full of air with that large bubble forming in the picture below. We'll have to keep a close watch. Is it serious or is it time to buy-on-dip!

Gold Commentary

Disclaimer: I'm not an analyst and I am wholly unqualified to give any financial or investment advice whatsoever. This is just a place for me to put my notes accessible from anywhere and for a few friends to discuss.

Gold    $1483.29
Silver  $42.746

Not much to say about it really. Unexpected inflation in Europe I guess was the trigger, plus the technical traders with buy orders around 1480 - which I never really understand, talk about bad timing!

It's worth looking at the charts otherwise one tends to feel a bit in awe of the succession of new highs.

1 Point Chart

5 Point Chart

Actually we're a not really in any excessive rally for gold. The 1 point charts shows the fluctuations since April 1st. Remember that these charts don't move sideways by date, there's no date concept, only opposing forces can make significant sideways movement. That movement happened some time ago and we've seen a correction back to a more steady pace. If you'd have tried to short the market on the early April rises, you'd have been sitting on that for a couple of weeks, wondering just how wrong you could be. A brief and rather difficult decline was then followed by yet another easy climb to new highs. By the way that declines was when the Feds were announcing their marginally better than expected employment figures. There are a bunch of people out there trading news reactions!!

Gold Commentary

Disclaimer: I'm not an analyst and I am wholly unqualified to give any financial or investment advice whatsoever. This is just a place for me to put my notes accessible from anywhere and for a few friends to discuss.

Hi Paul,

Any chances for correction in near future?

Best regards,


Hey xxxx,
The signals I have are all very bullish. Fundamentally a surprise rate hike in the US could affect gold in the short term, but medium to long term raising rates in the US would do more damage. Gold should consolidate between 1450 and 1480 creating a strong support level. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't challenge a new high before this week is out, it's trading down at 1450 and could rally from here if there's willing. I wouldn't be too worried about it breaking below 1448.

Paul

Gold Commentary

Well not much to add, we have so obviously broken out on the upside of some serious consolidation, we can for the time being feel comfortable that our gold is safe.

Instead let me link to another blog that highlights gold's role in the world: Why Central Banks of the West Hate Gold